From Tariff Trauma to Tentative Confidence

From Tariff Trauma to Tentative Confidence

When tariff threats shook the market in early 2025, the fine wine trade braced for a prolonged slump. The retreat of US buyers — who had quietly become some of the world’s most active traders — sent shockwaves through Bordeaux and beyond.

Now, with tariffs settled at a manageable 15%, confidence is cautiously returning. Trade volumes have climbed back to 2018 levels, signaling a slow rebuild. Yet, the exuberance of 2024 remains out of reach.

Unlike European merchants who lean on allocations and long-standing relationships, American traders are driven by margin and flexibility. For them, uncertainty is the real enemy — not taxation. With predictability restored, many are restocking carefully, waiting for inventory pressure to lift before committing to larger volumes.

A Broader Palette: From Bordeaux to Barolo

The United States’ relationship with Bordeaux has cooled since the first wave of tariffs in 2019. Out of that disruption emerged a surprising set of beneficiaries: Champagne and Italian wines. Both were exempt from those early tariffs and quickly filled the void left by French still wines.

The remarkable twist? Even after the tariffs were lifted, American demand for Champagne and Italian labels didn’t fade — it solidified. Producers like Bollinger, Dom Pérignon, Ornellaia, and Sassicaia now enjoy sustained American interest that was once reserved for Pauillac or Pomerol.

By 2025, both Champagne and California’s top estates have reclaimed their pre-tariff market share. The fine wine landscape in the US is now defined not by loyalty to one region, but by agility and taste diversity.

The California Paradox

Tariffs are supposed to encourage domestic consumption. And yet, the strong dollar has turned the logic upside down. Many US buyers are finding it cheaper to purchase Californian wines from international markets than from within the States.

This cross-border price dynamic has boosted trade activity while keeping more value in the American supply chain — a neat irony that the market has fully embraced. Napa continues to stand tall, not as a patriotic fallback, but as a globally traded asset class in its own right.

Looking Ahead

The fine wine market’s center of gravity still leans on American participation. Their appetite for liquidity, profit, and opportunity shapes not only what sells, but how fast the market moves.

While it’s unlikely we’ll see a full return to 2024’s feverish pace, the steady re-engagement of US buyers marks a new chapter: one where confidence and strategy, not speculation, drive growth.

At Rue Pinard, we continue to monitor these shifts closely — because understanding what drives the American collector today tells us where the next great opportunity in fine wine will come from tomorrow.

Source: Liv-ex Market Data (620+ global merchants, £140 million in bids and offers, covering over 20,000 wines).